Dwyane Wade: The Most Important Player? (Click Image to Enlarge)

As stated in an earlier study, the Heat lose when they don’t shoot well. It sounds obvious, but a team like the Celtics or Lakers still win games when they don’t shoot well. I used to think that Bosh playing well was the key to Miami victories, but it seems more like Dwyane Wade is the X-factor. His field goal percentage is more than 100 points or ten percentage points lower in losses than in wins. He gets to the line at the same rate, but his FT% is over 79 points lower. He even averages almost one and a half more turnovers in losses than he does in wins. Although Lebron and Chris Bosh also shoot significantly worse in Miami losses, the other aspects of their respective games are not materially different in wins and losses.

Click Table to Enlarge

This table suggests that generally, Wade’s overall play, and specifically his shooting, is the difference in Miami wins and losses. This conclusion is also evident when watching the Heat play; Wade has had some mind-boggling turnovers and questionable shot selection at different points of the season.

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How To Beat The Miami Heat (Click Image to Enlarge)

Based on the table below and the Heat games I have seen, here’s how to beat the Heat:
When the Heat are offense it usually doesn’t matter who they’re playing; either they’re making their shots or not.  They shoot 49.8% in their wins vs 43.2% in their losses, and from three they shoot 40.8% in their wins and 30.2% in losses.  The opposing defense can affect the Heat offense by playing great team defense (the Celtics); play any other way on defense(relying on one or two good defenders) and you lose.
Ball movement is the key to an opposing offense beating the Heat defense; they have several good on-ball defenders.  In their losses, 62% of the opposing teams field goals are assisted compared to 55% in their wins.  If your teams plays an isolation offense revolving around one player, they no chance against the Heat D. 
Looking at these stats, there’s no wonder the Heat haven’t beaten the Bulls or Celtics this season.