49ers-Cowboys: The Best Sports Rivalry in The 90’s.

49ers-Cowboys: The Best Sports Rivalry in The 90’s..

49ers-Cowboys: The Best Sports Rivalry in The 90’s.


The chart below looks at 5-year periods in NFL since the 1978-82 period and how much the two best teams dominated during the 5-year period.  Their dominance is measured by the average number of wins those two teams achieved during the period; playoffs wins are included.  For example, if Dallas won 60 games and Denver won 50 games during the 5-year period, then the chart would read 55.

The 'Boys and Niners were the most dominant until Brady and Manning surpassed them in 2007.



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NFL: What Happens When Top Offenses Play Top Defenses? (Part 1 of 2)

About the tables:  

Compares all games, 1991-2010, where a top 3 rushing offense plays against a top 3 rushing defense.  Table 1 shows the top ten rushing games for the offense and Table 2 shows the top ten rushing games for the defense.

Run Off:  Average Rush Yards Per Game for Offensive Team
Run Def:  Average Rush Yards Allowed Per Game for Defensive Team
Expected:  Average of Run Off and Run Def
Actual:  Rushing Yards Allowed By The Defense
Difference:  The Percentage Difference Between Actual and Expect

Notables: (These facts are not on the tables, but were in my research; I couldn’t reasonably fit them on the table.)

When a top 3 rush offense plays a top 3 rushing defense, the offense has 18% fewer rushing yards than expected, on average. 

In the ten best rushing games, the offensive team had a relatively diverse rushing attack (during the season, the team’s leading rusher accounted for only 48% of the total rushing yards on average, while the average of the yearly top 3 rushing teams (1991-2010) was 61%).  On these same teams, the quarterback accounted for 16% of the team’s total rushing yards while the average was 10%.

In the ten worst rushing games, the offensive team had a less diverse rushing attack.  The leading rusher accounted for 62% of the team’s rushing yards and the quarterback accounted for only 9% of the total rushing yards.

The statistical significance of these results was not measured, but these results do suggest that this topic might benefit from further study.

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Kwame Brown: By Far The Worst Number 1 Pick Of The Last Ten Years.

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The Best Base Stealers of 2010: Isolating Base Stealing Ability.

The chart below uses Stolen Bases per 150 singles and walks to more accurately measure the best swipers in baseball.  The logic is simple: the most stolen base is second base, so those who get more extra-base hits have fewer opportunities to steal second base than those who draw a great deal of walks and hit lots of singles. 
This table also measures what base stealers are overrated or underrated due to the number of singles or extra-base hits the player gets.  A value of 1.00 shows that the player’s base-stealing is properly valued, while a value below 1.00 shows that the player’s ability is underrated.  Brett Gardner’s value of 1.26 implies that he is overvalued as a base-stealer, as he has more opportunities because of his high rate of singles and walks.

Where will Troy Murphy end up? Whoever gets him will have one the most unique players of the last 30 years.

If Boston gets him, they will have traded one Notre Dame three-point shooting power forward (Harangody) for the older, better version.  Below is the list of players since the 1980-81 season who have averaged at least 10 rebounds per 36 minutes and shot at least 37.5% (3 of every 8) from three.  Here is the uniqueness that is Troy Murphy:

Duke Snider: I didn’t see him play, but his stats and my Grandpa’s stories tell me it was a great time to be a baseball fan in New York in the 50’s and 60’s… and By the way, a perfectly natural career curve.

A great way to detect an abnormal career progression; it uses OPS+ as a proxy to measure overall batting skill.  Relative OPS+ is measured by comparing 5-year periods of a player’s career.  For instance, when 32 is seen on the age axis it represents the player’s performance from age 28 through age 32, and age 33 represents ages 29 through 33 and so on.  The relative part is introduced when all of the player’s other 5-year periods are indexed to the player’s best 5-year period.  The best 5-year period equals 100 and the rest of the 5-year periods are measured accordingly.  The chart above  displays the career progression in which 80% of players fit.  A couple of things to remember when viewing the chart is that the area between the 10% lines is 80% of all players measured. Additionally, the player’s performance is compared to himself, so if Player A has an 85 rating at age  32 and Player B has an 89 rating at the same age, that does not necessarily mean that Player  B was a better player; it just means Player B closer to his peak than Player A. 

Is Miami’s Big Three Forming and Carmelo Joining the Knicks a Sign of the League Becoming More Top-Heavy? (Click Chart to Zoom In)