Congrats Derek Jeter – The Most Unlikely 3000th Hits.

Derek Jeter got hit number 3000 today on a homerun.  Wade Boggs is the only other guy to hit a homerun on hit 3000.  Of the 27 (28 if you count Cap Anson) who have achieved 3000 hits, one player had a triple (Paul Molitor), seven players have had a double, and 17 have had a single.  Of course, this information could have been gotten from any number of places on the internet, but the following table probably could only be seen here. 
Hit Number 2,998 or 2,997 or 2,996…..

The table below measures the “likelihood” of the type of hit the player got as his hit number 3000.  The hit probability column is easy to understand; it looks at the player’s 3000th and shows what percent of his hits has been that type.  Hank Aaron’s 3000th hit was a single, and singles were 61% of his career hits.  If only that column was used, the most likely hits would obviously be singles and the least likely, triples.  However, the Relative Probability column tries to measure the likelihood of the 3000th hit type compared to all the other players on the 3000 hit list.  A relative prob. of 100 means that the player has a likelihood of getting a particular type of hit that is equal to the 3000 hit club as a whole.  By this measure, Hank Aaron had the most unlikely 3000th hit (65.0), relative to the distribution of his hits.  Derek Jeter had a relative probability of 96.4, and Rod Carew, a singles hitter, had the most likely 3000th hit – a single.


The Most Important Yankees Hitter In 2010.

The adjacent table is an attempt to find out who was the most important hitter on the Yankees in 2010.  It uses the difference in OPS+ in wins and losses as the measure to evaluate the hitters.  For more on OPS+ click HERE. 
I expected to see Gardner at the top of the list because he is usually the tablesetter for the top of the order, as he usually batted 9th or 1st.  Additionally, I expected him to be at the top because when he gets on base, he’s explosive.  Gardner’s difference of 92 finished second behind Granderson’s difference of 111.  No surprise that Cervelli,Thames, and Swisher are at the bottom.  These stats were found at
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Were The Yankees The Best Offense In Baseball Last Year?

The table below attempts to answer the title question.  In the table, three measures are used to evaluate the effectiveness of an offense.  100 equals league average, while 115 is elite, and 85 is poor.  The numbers highlighted in blue indicate the team is top 5 in the category and in red, the bottom 5.

The first is measure consistency; consistency in this study is calculated by the number of innings scored as a percent of total innings played.  The logic behind it is that if a team scores in multiple innings during a game, then they are usually not susceptible to long scoring droughts or bouts of futility.  Additionally, sometimes a side effect of being a consistent offense is clutch hitting; partly because of the aforementioned aversion to long slumps.
The second measure is explosiveness; in this study it is measured by the number of runs scored per scoring inning.  In others words, when a team scores in an inning, how many runs do they score?  Do they explode for 4 or 5 runs, or are their rallies killed by poor hitters wallowing in the bottom of their lineup?
The third measure is offense index; it is measured by calculating the geometric mean of the consistency and explosiveness.  Average was not used because it can skew the offense index; a team with a 150 consistency and an 80 explosiveness would have an offense index of 115(when it should be around 109), because of the high consistency.  A team like that may score a run every three innings and that’s not enough to win a ballgame.  The converse of that, a team with 80 consistency and 150 explosiveness, may score three runs in an inning and none for the rest of the game; that is also usually not enough to win a ballgame.(Unless you’re the Phillies!)

There are no real surprises in the table, the Yankees ranked number one, and the Mariners were dead last. Although there were no surprises, there were some oddities. The Tigers and D-Backs were explosive offenses, but were more prone to slumps than the rest of the league. Both teams were also prone to strikeouts; Austin Jackson struck out 170 times, Mark Reynolds struck out 211 times and had a .198 batting average! The Rangers and the Marlins had elite-level consistency, but the Rangers’ explosiveness was slightly below league average and the Marlins explosiveness was near the bottom of the league.

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