Dwyane Wade: The Most Important Player? (Click Image to Enlarge)

As stated in an earlier study, the Heat lose when they don’t shoot well. It sounds obvious, but a team like the Celtics or Lakers still win games when they don’t shoot well. I used to think that Bosh playing well was the key to Miami victories, but it seems more like Dwyane Wade is the X-factor. His field goal percentage is more than 100 points or ten percentage points lower in losses than in wins. He gets to the line at the same rate, but his FT% is over 79 points lower. He even averages almost one and a half more turnovers in losses than he does in wins. Although Lebron and Chris Bosh also shoot significantly worse in Miami losses, the other aspects of their respective games are not materially different in wins and losses.

Click Table to Enlarge

This table suggests that generally, Wade’s overall play, and specifically his shooting, is the difference in Miami wins and losses. This conclusion is also evident when watching the Heat play; Wade has had some mind-boggling turnovers and questionable shot selection at different points of the season.

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