Is Boston Really In Trouble? Ok, Maybe They Are.

Boston has a tough task ahead of them in Game 3 and for the rest of the series.  Being down 2-0 in a series, even when you have games 3 and 4 at home, leaves a team with a slim chance to win the series.  NBA analysts have been saying that Boston shouldn’t worry, since a series doesn’t really start until someone loses at home.  I tend to believe that too, but the stats don’t bear that out.  In the 40 2-3 matchups in the playoffs since 1991, only eleven have seen the higher seed/home team win the first two games of the series.  Therefore, an analyst can’t really say that higher seed is supposed to win the first two games at home; as it has only happened 28% of the time in 2-3 matchups.  But there is hope for Celtics fans and Heat haters:  in 2 of those 11 instances, the team down 2-0 has won the series, and in 6 of the 11 the series has gone to at least a game 6.  If the Celts can get it to a game 6, you can throw all these stats away; because then anything can happen.


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