Game 7 In The NBA Playoffs: Home-Court Advantage Is Overstated. (Filipino Version)

Tulad ng NBA playoffs ay puspusan, duda walang ikaw ay pagdinig dose-dosenang mga clichés hagis sa paligid sa pamamagitan ng mga commentators. Ang pinaka-nanggagalit klisey ay na ang mga bahay ng koponan ay nanalo Game 7 ng serye karamihan ng oras. Since 1991, ang tahanan ng koponan ay 36-10, isang .783 porsyento manalo. stat na ito ay palaging nagdala up nang hindi ilagay sa tamang konteksto; bilang kung sabihin sa pagkakaroon ng Game 7 sa bahay nagiging sanhi ng isang team na manalo. Gayunman, hindi ko na marinig ang isang komentarista sa banggitin na ang team na may bahay-hukuman kalamangan ay may isang mas mahusay na rekord at karaniwang ay ang mas mahusay na koponan anyway. Gusto One inaasahan sa kanila na manalo ng isang Game 7 sa bahay o sa kalye. Sa artikulong ito, ako ay subukan upang malaman kung gaano karaming mga Game 7s ay won sa pamamagitan ng mga koponan ng bahay higit sa lahat dahil sila ay sa bahay. 
Ang talahanayan sa ibaba sumusubok na makakuha ng mga sagot sa naunang tanong.Ang mga pangunahing saligan ng talahanayan ay na ang mga mas kalsada nanalo may mga sa isang serye, mas mababa ang bahay-hukuman bentahe bagay. hiwalay ko 1-4 Games Games mula sa 5-7 dahil ang huling tatlong laro ng isang serye ay karaniwang mas malubha kaysa sa unang apat at bahay-hukuman bagay bahagyang, ngunit pa rin mas malaki sa huling tatlong laro. Since 1991, sa Games 1-4 ang kalye team wins 32% ng oras habang sa Games 5-7 daan ang nanalo 25% ng oras. I rate, sa isang apat na point scale, ang probabilidad ng mga home team winning Game 7 higit sa lahat dahil ang mga ito sa bahay. Ang apat na kinalabasan ay: Oo, malamang mangyari, nagdududa, at Hindi. Ito ay scale malayo sa perpekto, ngunit ito ay lilitaw sapat na upang tapusin na Game 7 bahay-hukuman kalamangan ay overstated
Narito ang dalawang halimbawa ng kung paano table ang gumagana: Ang 2004 serye sa pagitan ng Miami at New Orleans ginawa kalye walang panalo, kaya ito ay magiging ligtas na sabihin na ang home team won Game 7 dahil sa mga bentahe home hukuman; Ang 2003 serye Detroit-Orlando ginawa ng dalawang nanalo kalye, Detroit winning na Game 7 ay mas malamang dahil sa kanila sa pagiging isang mas mahusay na team kaysa dahil sa bahay-hukuman bentahe. Ang talahanayan sa ibaba ay nagpapakita ng mga labing isang serye unang-round na napunta sa Game 7 dahil ang unang round pinalawak na sa 2003.


                                                                First Round:
Ang tahanan ng koponan won 9 ng 11 Game 7s, ngunit kung paano marami sa mga nanalo 9 ay higit sa lahat dahil sa bahay-hukuman bentahe? Ayon sa mesa, lamang 5 ng 9 nanalo ay hindi bababa sa maaaring dahil sa mga bahay-hukuman kalamangan lamang. Na nangangahulugan na ang 4 ng 9 wins bahay-team marahil ay walang kinalaman sa bahay-hukuman bentahe. Home-hukuman bentahe, hindi bababa sa unang round ng playoffs, tila lubos na overstated.


 

                                               Conference Semi-Finals:
                               
Ang tahanan ng koponan won 17 ng 23 Game 7s, ngunit kung paano marami sa mga 17 nanalo ay higit sa lahat dahil sa bahay-hukuman bentahe? Ayon sa mesa, lamang ng 11 ang 17 ay nanalo ng hindi bababa sa maaaring dahil sa mga bahay-hukuman kalamangan lamang. Iyon ay nangangahulugan na 6 ng 17 wins bahay-team marahil ay walang kinalaman sa bahay-hukuman bentahe. Home-hukuman bentahe sa Conference Semifinals ‘Game 7s, lumilitaw na overstated, tulad ng ito ay sa unang round ng playoffs.



                                            Conference and NBA Finals:

Ang tahanan ng koponan won 10 ng 12 Game 7s, ngunit kung paano marami sa mga 10 nanalo ay higit sa lahat dahil sa bahay-hukuman bentahe? Ayon sa mesa, lamang 6 sa 10 wins ay hindi bababa sa maaaring dahil sa mga bahay-hukuman kalamangan lamang. Na nangangahulugan na ang 4 sa 10 wins bahay-team marahil ay walang kinalaman sa bahay-hukuman bentahe. Home-hukuman kalamangan sa mga Conference at NBA Finals ‘Game 7s, lumilitaw na overstated, tulad ng ito ay sa unang round at conference semifinals ng playoffs.


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Game Seven In The NBA Playoffs: Home-Court Advantage Is Overstated.


The most irritating cliché that I’ve heard is that the home team wins Game 7 of the series most of the time.  Since 1991, the home team is 36-10, a .783 win percentage.  This stat is always brought up without being put into proper context; as if to say having Game 7 at home causes a team to win.  However, I’ve never heard a commentator mention that the team with home-court advantage has a better record and usually is the better team anyway.  One would expect them to win a Game 7 at home, or on the road.  In this article, I will try to find out how many Game 7s were won by the home team mainly because they were at home. 

The table below tries to get the answer to the previous question.  The basic premise of the table is that the more road wins there are in a series, the less home-court advantage matters.  I separate Games 1-4 from Games 5-7 because the last three games of a series are usually more intense than the first four and home-court matters slightly, but still materially more in the last three games.  Since 1991, in Games 1-4 the road team wins 32% of the time while in Games 5-7 the road wins 25% of the time.  I rate, on a four point scale, the probability of the home team winning Game 7 mainly because they’re at home.  The four outcomes are: Yes, Probable, Doubtful, and No.  This is scale far from perfect, but it appears sufficient to conclude that Game 7 home-court advantage is overstated.

Here are two examples of how the table works: The 2004 series between Miami and New Orleans produced no road wins, so it would be safe to say that the home team won Game 7 because of the home court advantage. 
The 2003 Detroit-Orlando series produced two road wins, Detroit winning that Game 7 was more likely due to them being a better team than due to home-court advantage. 
The table below shows the eleven first-round series that went to Game 7 since the first round expanded in 2003. 

                                                                First Round:
The home team won 9 of the 11 Game 7s, but how many of those 9 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 5 of the 9 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 4 of the 9 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage, at least in the first round of the playoffs, seems greatly overstated. 
 
                                               Conference Semi-Finals:
                               
The home team won 17 of the 23 Game 7s, but how many of those 17 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 11 of the 17 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 6 of the 17 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference Semifinals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round of the playoffs.



                                            Conference & NBA Finals:

The home team won 10 of the 12 Game 7s, but how many of those 10 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 6 of the 10 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 4 of the 10 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference and NBA Finals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round and conference semifinals of the playoffs.


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Game 7 In The NBA Playoffs: Home-Court Advantage Is Overstated. (Part 3 of 3)



As the NBA playoffs are upon us, we will hear dozens of clichés thrown around by commentators.  The most irritating cliché is that the home team wins Game 7 of the series most of the time.  Since 1991, the home team is 36-10, a .783 win percentage.  This stat is always brought up without being put into proper context; as if to say having Game 7 at home causes a team to win.  However, I’ve never heard a commentator mention that the team with home-court advantage has a better record and usually is the better team anyway.  One would expect them to win a Game 7 at home, or on the road.  In this article and subsequent articles, I will try to find out how many Game 7s were won by the home team mainly because they were at home. 
The table below tries to get the answer to the previous question.  The basic premise of the table is that the more road wins there are in a series, the less home-court advantage matters.  I separate Games 1-4 from Games 5-7 because the last three games of a series are probably more intense than the first four and home-court matters slightly, but still materially more in the last three games.  Since 1991, in Games 1-4 the road team wins 32% of the time while in Games 5-7 the road wins 25% of the time.  I rate, on a five point scale, the probability of the home team winning Game 7 mainly because they’re at home.  The five outcomes are: Yes, Probable, Possible, Doubtful, and No.  This is scale far from perfect, but it appears sufficient to answer the question posed in this article. 
Here are two examples of how the table works: The 1995 series between Orlando and Indiana produced no road wins, so it would be safe to say that the home team won Game 7 because of the home court advantage.  The 2000 LA-Portland series produced four road wins, LA winning that Game 7 was more likely due to them being a better team than due to home-court advantage.  The table below shows the 12 conference and NBA finals series that went to Game 7 in the last 20 post-seasons.
The home team won 10 of the 12 Game 7s, but how many of those 10 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 6 of the 10 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 4 of the 10 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference and NBA Finals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round and conference semifinals of the playoffs.  Part 1    Part 2
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Game 7 In The NBA Playoffs: Home-Court Advantage Is Overstated. (Part 2 of 3)

As the NBA playoffs are upon us, we will hear dozens of clichés thrown around by commentators.  The most irritating cliché is that the home team wins Game 7 of the series most of the time.  Since 1991, the home team is 36-10, a .783 win percentage.  This stat is always brought up without being put into proper context; as if to say having Game 7 at home causes a team to win.  However, I’ve never heard a commentator mention that the team with home-court advantage has a better record and usually is the better team anyway.  One would expect them to win a Game 7 at home, or on the road.  In this article and subsequent articles, I will try to find out how many Game 7s were won by the home team mainly because they were at home. 
The table below tries to get the answer to the previous question.  The basic premise of the table is that the more road wins there are in a series, the less home-court advantage matters.  I separate Games 1-4 from Games 5-7 because the last three games of a series are probably more intense than the first four and home-court matters slightly, but still materially more in the last three games.  Since 1991, in Games 1-4 the road team wins 32% of the time while in Games 5-7 the road wins 25% of the time.  I rate, on a five point scale, the probability of the home team winning Game 7 mainly because they’re at home.  The five outcomes are: Yes, Probable, Possible, Doubtful, and No.  This is scale far from perfect, but it appears sufficient to answer the question posed in this article. 
Here are two examples of how the table works: The 1994 series between New York and Chicago produced no road wins, so it would be safe to say that the home team won Game 7 because of the home court advantage.  The 1994 Utah-Denver series produced two road wins, Utah winning that Game 7 was more likely due to them being a better team than due to home-court advantage.  The table below shows the 23 conference semifinals series that went to Game 7 in the last 20 post-seasons.



The home team won 17 of the 23 Game 7s, but how many of those 17 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 11 of the 17 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 6 of the 17 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference Semifinals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round of the playoffs.  Part 1

Other Posts:

http://sportstatistics.blogspot.com/2011/04/nba-playoff-preview-round-1-2-miami.html

http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/03/carmelo-what-has-he-done-to-knicks.html

http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/can-nba-team-peak-too-soon-and-still.html



Game 7 In The NBA Playoffs: Home-Court Advantage Is Overstated.



As the NBA playoffs are in full swing, no doubt you’re hearing dozens of clichés thrown around by commentators.  The most irritating cliché is that the home team wins Game 7 of the series most of the time.  Since 1991, the home team is 36-10, a .783 win percentage.  This stat is always brought up without being put into proper context; as if to say having Game 7 at home causes a team to win.  However, I’ve never heard a commentator mention that the team with home-court advantage has a better record and usually is the better team anyway.  One would expect them to win a Game 7 at home, or on the road.  In this article, I will try to find out how many Game 7s were won by the home team mainly because they were at home. 

The table below tries to get the answer to the previous question.  The basic premise of the table is that the more road wins there are in a series, the less home-court advantage matters.  I separate Games 1-4 from Games 5-7 because the last three games of a series are usually more intense than the first four and home-court matters slightly, but still materially more in the last three games.  Since 1991, in Games 1-4 the road team wins 32% of the time while in Games 5-7 the road wins 25% of the time.  I rate, on a four point scale, the probability of the home team winning Game 7 mainly because they’re at home.  The four outcomes are: Yes, Probable, Doubtful, and No.  This is scale far from perfect, but it appears sufficient to conclude that Game 7 home-court advantage is overstated.

Here are two examples of how the table works: The 2004 series between Miami and New Orleans produced no road wins, so it would be safe to say that the home team won Game 7 because of the home court advantage; The 2003 Detroit-Orlando series produced two road wins, Detroit winning that Game 7 was more likely due to them being a better team than due to home-court advantage.  The table below shows the eleven first-round series that went to Game 7 since the first round expanded in 2003. 


                                                                First Round:

The home team won 9 of the 11 Game 7s, but how many of those 9 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 5 of the 9 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 4 of the 9 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage, at least in the first round of the playoffs, seems greatly overstated. 



                                               Conference Semi-Finals:

                               

The home team won 17 of the 23 Game 7s, but how many of those 17 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 11 of the 17 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 6 of the 17 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference Semifinals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round of the playoffs.



                                            Conference & NBA Finals:

The home team won 10 of the 12 Game 7s, but how many of those 10 wins were mainly because of home-court advantage?  According to the table, only 6 of the 10 wins were at least probably due to home-court advantage alone.  That means that 4 of the 10 home-team wins probably had nothing to do with home-court advantage.  Home-court advantage in the Conference and NBA Finals’ Game 7s, appears to be overstated, as it did in the first round and conference semifinals of the playoffs.


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http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/wait-til-next-year-which-league-gives.html


http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/sweep-revenge-how-teams-bounce-back.html


http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/nfl-draft-how-good-were-top-100-picks.html


http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/04/playoff-sweeps-some-are-worse-than.html


http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/03/nfls-new-kickoff-rules-are-they.html